6.01 Risk Assessment & Management

This presentation will provide a detailed look at how Manitoba Hydro builds and applies whole-life cost models for the purpose of projecting performance, cost, and risk for an asset class. The application of predictive analytics, through the use of these models, will be discussed as it relates to a single asset class, to mature Manitoba Hydro’s asset management strategy.

If we were to do reliability analysis on certain assets, which assets are worth our effort and provide the greatest impact? To solve this, our team developed a focused methodology to help us identify which asset types need to be further analyzed in the coming years. Our goal is to identify the asset type that causes the highest generation of lost opportunity cost and the highest maintenance costs. Ideally, the generation of lost opportunity cost should be added to maintenance cost. Lost opportunity cost is calculated from existing operational performance data, which is collected and used for NERC GADS (North American Electric Reliability Corporation Generating Availability Data System) reporting. Maintenance cost is calculated from maintenance history in CMMS (Computerized Maintenance Management System). The operational performance and maintenance history data are illustrated using a Pareto chart. As a result, the asset type that causes the highest generation of lost opportunity cost can be identified from the chart. However, asset types with the highest maintenance costs may not indicate the asset type with the most issues. Besides, the NERC GADS codes may be related to one or more assets in CMMS and, therefore, need a relationship to be created if the costs are to be added.

We are in unprecedented times. Covid-19 wreaked havoc on supply chains; decreased production during times of increased demand. Labor shortages, chip shortages, long lead items turning into “maybe next year, if you’re lucky” items. The Russia Ukraine war added further stress to supply chains through sanctions, port closures, fuel shortages and much more. What once was reliable is now unreliable. So how can companies overcome an unreliable supply chain to maintain their reliability? There are several ways to mitigate unreliability; scenario planning, supplier management, and technology. There is no one size fits all and what may work for one company will not necessarily work for another. Scenario planning involves reviewing every potential situation that could occur, then working through to see how the company would be impacted. Ultimately this results in mitigation plans for each scenario. These can then be reviewed and implemented. Proper Supplier Management includes ensuring all suppliers have their scorecards reviewed on a regular basis. Their information updated and kept current. It can also include reviewing which suppliers can become substitutes for others in the event one is not able to provide the required product in time. Technology is important as it links all the information together. Algorithms can be created to let management know that certain parts are low, equipment is wearing out sooner, it also collects information on suppliers for the scorecards. Overall technology is the glue that binds and provides real time information updates. This presentation will review how to best use technology to help mitigate reliability and supply chain issues.

We all love to solution and check off that win for the team, but moving too quickly may result in introducing new problems or even amplifying previously smaller issues. The latter is common particularly in technology implementation where the hope is for efficiency improvement, but the results sometimes don’t meet the desired outcome. Although root cause analysis was informally practiced at the SMCDSB, the implementation of a formal program using a process approach to problem solve, define requirements, and solution has strengthened troubleshooting and preventing future problems. By taking a very focused stance on identifying the problem or need clearly and leveraging the Kepner-Tregoe Analytical Troubleshooting method, there is improved clarity, definition, and logic in how the analysis completed. I wish to share the journey of RCA program implementation for the SMCDSB with examples and successes we've achieved.

The energy landscape is shifting with the rise in electrification of transit and the rise of renewable energy shaping a new energy era that is changing the way we think about infrastructure decision making. This presentation will articulate how electrification of transit and an increase in renewables will impact medium and long-term infrastructure planning by providing examples and a practical perspective (case study) to demonstrate how Asset Management decision-making played a vital role in a utility company’s response to this change. This utility company is a key contributor to several electrification initiatives. They recognized the challenge associated with these initiatives and the overall success of the first implementation phase with minimal disruption to current operations. They are also preparing for electrification of the government transit’s first all-electric bus garage to support future procurements of battery-electric buses (eBuses) and will be working on the design and implementation of charging systems infrastructure across the city(?). Over the past 20 years, more than 50 renewable energy systems have been installed on City buildings and properties. In 2020, the city developed recommendations for the utility to achieve greater outcomes for energy efficiency, demand management, and renewable energy. The city also mandated installation of renewable energy systems on all buildings, where feasible, by 2020. The rate of development in electrification and technology in the transit sector is faster than implementation of major infrastructure developments; changes in demand patterns impact everything from the transmission and distribution networks to generation, dispatch and peak-load system capacity design; so it is not possible to “wait and see” before committing to infrastructure investment decisions. This presentation will cover how the utility is dealing with these changes by ensuring an appropriate long-term decision-making framework is in place to assure business continuity and reduce the impact on climate because it poses a particular risk for asset owners and operators. AMCL will present best practices for long-term decision-making and how the impact of change should be taken into account during the development of long-term infrastructure planning processes, in the context of a public utility.

An Asset Health Index or AHI refers to analysis performed using various asset data to determine the state or condition of the asset. AHI can be used to better assess asset condition, used and useful life, progression toward potential failure, and failure probability. Further, using AHI can also enable the development of optimized maintenance and replacement strategies for assets using a set of objective criteria to assess the true health of the asset. However, entities vary widely in whether they develop Asset Health Indexes (AHIs) for their key assets. For those that do, there are marked differences in the level of rigour and sophistication employed in developing and applying AHIs for effective asset management decision-making. AHI calculations involve identifying and collecting data which may include a review of core asset attributes such as manufacturer, inspection data including field observations, destructive and/or non-destructive test data, maintenance data including historical records, operational records, and asset failure/refurbishment data. In other words, some are core inventory data, some work records, and some inspections or tests. This presentation will go through how to make the best use of asset SMEs and how you can start to develop useful AHIs from what you already know/have. Technically, the process begins with identifying the most critical assets and determining which can best benefit from AHI formulation development. The next steps are used to develop proposed condition factors (CF) and weighting factors (WF) that provide insight into the condition of the assets. Finally, CFs and WFs are used to develop a mathematical algorithm or formulas for the Health Index. We will also discuss how AHI can be used to develop asset management and maintenance strategies – the whole point of the data and analysis in the first place.

Asset Criticality is an important input to production system design, maintenance strategy definition and short term work execution management processes. The value the supporting FEMA exercises provide in determining these categorizations is well understood in the Reliability Community. Less common is the extension of this analytical rigor to the spare parts required to maintain equipment. Establishing and maintaining robust part criticality values can be an invaluable link between operations and the supporting supply chain, helping to set stocking strategies, inform alternative material management approaches and quickly flag when expediting is required. Despite the value, part criticality values (or Risk Priority Numbers) are rarely objectively derived and even less frequently maintained. This presentation is intended to: 1. Establish the link between asset health and spare part availability 2. Illustrate common item criticality practices 3. Provide an overview of a robust item criticality assessment approach 4. Highlight the benefits to be gained from an enhanced approach to item criticality determination.

Ian Flood, Asset Manager at Northwest Territories Power Corporation, is a recent graduate from PEMAC's Asset Management Professional program. His AMP Course 6 Capstone Project was nominated by his instructor, and selected as this year's AMP Capstone Award winning project. The AMP Capstone Award encourages and recognizes excellence in the Asset Management Professional (AMP) program final project, the Capstone. During this presentation, Ian will share more insights into himself, his organization, his award winning AMP capstone presentation and how his learnings in the AMP program have impacted his organization.

In 2020, as the COVID-19 pandemic gripped the world, the foundations of business operations shifted instantly. With ripple effects continuing today, organizations continue to strive to adapt to the changing landscape. In these times, the principles and practices of asset management are more critical than ever and can be a framework for embedding resiliency. This presentation will delve into the relationship between asset management principles and three focus areas impacted by COVID, while sharing real life examples from water and wastewater operations. First, we will explore how facility lockdowns and supply chain disruptions impacted equipment repair parts availability. We will dive into how facilities with strong critical spare parts management techniques weathered these disruptions with less panic and time spent chasing parts. And, how techniques such as predictive maintenance programs and planning scheduling better accommodated longer lead times before equipment intervention was required. Second, we will discuss what happens when only a few individuals own the asset management program and they are suddenly absent for health or family support obligations for an extended period. We will interconnect how building a strong ownership of asset management across disciplines and embedding processes and procedures ensures a lasting culture of asset management. Finally, lockdowns and travel bans forced our team to explore new methods for deploying technical support without onsite visits. Innovative approaches from virtually facilitated risk review workshops to augmented reality condition assessments have been developed and implemented over the past year. With advancements in technology, as the accumulation of data grows there has been a concentrated effort to leverage this data toward making data-justified decisions. Over the past year there has also been an increasing emphasis to leverage these analyses to bring decision teams to agreement as managers and client interact virtually. With an interdependent global economy it is only a matter of time until the next disruption hits, and implementing the core principles of asset management can enhance the resiliency of your organization.

When a defect occurs in a physical asset, it’s often not immediately detectable by operators. In fact, in some cases the defects are not visible to the naked eye. However, from the moment a defect occurs until it is found, there is a risk that the defect will grow in severity, and possibly transition into a failure, resulting in reduced or halted production. At a municipal transit company, the Nondestructive Testing (NDT) team uses specialized equipment to inspect the train tracks and identify the location and severity of any defects. Due to the limited hours during which the team can perform their work, the whole subway system can only be tested once per year. Using their data on train tracks and found defects, we investigate efficient ways to use the NDT team’s fixed resources in order to improve the reliability of the train track system.